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Table 7 (abstract O29). Proportion of children with a severe disease course (severe controlled and severe persisting combined) in the test data across 50 re-samples, according to their decile of risk

From: Proceedings of the 23rd Paediatric Rheumatology European Society Congress: part one

Decile of risk

1) Logistic

2) Random forest

3) K-nearest neighbor

4) Neural network

5) JIA category alone

First (low)

0.05

0.04

0.16

0.11

0.05

Third

0.05

0.05

0.05

0.09

0.06

Sixth

0.10

0.13

0.17

0.10

0.32

Ninth

0.43

0.45

0.29

0.41

0.36

Tenth (high)

0.91

0.88

0.51

0.74

0.37

C-Index (95% CI)

0.85 (0.80, 0.90)

0.85 (0.82, 0.88)

0.67 (0.59, 0.75)

0.75 (0.71, 0.79)

0.71 (0.65, 0.79)

Maximum likelihood (95% CI)

−51 (−43, −59)

−58 (−49, −66)

−81 (−61, −100)

−107 (−99, −116)

−69 (−60, −77)

Pearson (95% CI)

47 (34, 61)

45 (37, 53)

12 (3, 20)

26 (18, 33)

13 (7, 19)