Skip to main content
  • Poster presentation
  • Open access
  • Published:

Prognostic factors for chronic arthritis in children with acute joint swelling


Acute inflammatory arthritis is frequent clinical sign in children with variable outcomes. Often post infectious or viral arthritis progress to chronic joint disease


Our aim is to determine prognostic factors that predict the course of chronic arthritis in children.


116 consecutive children with acute arthritis with symptoms duration < 6 weeks included in prospective study. A standardize rheumatologic evaluation was performed on newly referred patients. Possible diagnostic variables collected at the first visit: active joints count, symptoms duration, time of morning stiffness, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C reactive protein (SRP), antinuclear antibodies (ANA), HLA B27, myeloid-related protein 8/14 (MRP8/14) and IL-6 . Arthritis outcome was defined at 1 and 2 years follow-up. We considered the clinical outcomes - chronic arthritis and inactive disease. Multiple linear regression with forward stepwise was used to determine the prognostic variables.


109/116 patients completed follow –up period. Of all patients 36,7 % had clinically active (or chronic) arthritis after 1 year, and 30 % - after 2 year follow-up periods, and had been treated with appropriate therapy after establishing initial diagnose (JIA, arthritis related to infections and self-limited undifferentiated arthritis). The mean serum level of MRP8/14 at baseline measured in patients with arthritis related to infection was 11233,74 ng/ml, and 7836,05 ng/ml in JIA patients, compared with self-limiting arthritis – 4832,19 ng/ml (p<0,001). Predominantly very high MRP8/14 concentrations were measured in patients who developed chronic disease.

Logistic regression analysis showed that significant predictors of chronic disease were presence of morning stiffness (OR 8,7 [2,15-35,04]), arthritis in ≥ 5 joints(OR 6,3 [2-19,9]) and MRP8/14 concentration >5785 ng/ml (OR 4,4 [1,59-12,01]) at baseline.


The early presence of morning stiffness, polyarthritic joint involvement and high MRP8/14 concentration in a child with acute arthritis indicates the likelihood of chronic disease after 1 and 2 years follow-up.

Disclosure of interest

None declared.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations


Rights and permissions

This article is published under license to BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Rusoniene, S., Panaviene, V., Eidukaite, A. et al. Prognostic factors for chronic arthritis in children with acute joint swelling. Pediatr Rheumatol 12 (Suppl 1), P51 (2014).

Download citation

  • Published:

  • DOI: